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The Decoy Effect
Richard Rost 
          
7 months ago
I read an article today about the Decoy Effect, and it nailed a truth about how often we are nudged into decisions without realizing it.

Think about fast food fries. Small for $2, large for $4. Most people lean toward the small. But if they throw in a medium for $3.75, suddenly the large looks like the smart buy. The medium isn't meant to sell - it's the decoy. It exists to make the large look irresistible. Well, the large is only a quarter more than the medium.

As developers, we can use this same principle in a fair way when quoting jobs. Say a client needs a solution for their database. If you give them two options - the barebones cheap patch and the fully built-out robust system you know they need - they'll probably focus on cost. But if you add a third option, slightly less than the full build but almost as good, it suddenly makes the "real" solution look worth the money. The decoy frames the smart choice.

I've dealt with at least a dozen businesses in this situation. Somebody at the company - or sometimes even a guy who isn't around anymore - hacked together a database years ago. It's badly designed, full of duplicate data, no relationships, and it limps along until one day it doesn't. When I get called in, I can present it three ways.

Option A is just a quick tune-up: clean up the indexes, fix a couple of relationships, and patch a form or two. It'll work, but it won't solve the deeper design flaws.

Option B is a band-aid: keep the old structure, the one built by "that guy who kind of knew Access," and patch it enough so it runs a little smoother. But the cracks are still there, waiting to split open later.

Option C is the real solution: import the data into a properly normalized structure, rebuild the forms and reports with best practices, and give them something future-proof that can actually grow with the business.

Almost nobody wants Option A once they see what it leaves broken. Option B feels like a compromise, but it just keeps kicking the can down the road. By comparison, Option C - the one they needed all along - suddenly looks like the obvious smart move.

Same goes for quoting hardware upgrades. Back in my consulting days, I'd walk into offices still running on dusty old DOS machines tied together on a Novell network while the rest of the business world had moved on to Windows 2000. They wanted more speed and the ability to run modern apps. I'd give them three options. Option A was the cheap patch: throw in a little more memory and hope it bought them another year. Option B, the decoy, was to keep their old network but add a "newer" server to squeeze a bit more life out of the setup - a band-aid that wasn't going to last. Option C, the real solution, was to rip out the bottleneck, rewire with 100Base-T cabling, install a new switch, and move everyone to a proper Windows 2000 server with fresh workstations. Once they saw the choices side by side, almost every client realized that Option C was the only real way forward. (1)

The Decoy Effect is present in many walks of life. You see this in politics all the time. A bill gets proposed with three versions - the barebones draft, the full proposal, and then a slightly stripped-down compromise that isn't really designed to pass. It exists to make the full proposal look reasonable by comparison. (2)

The decoy isn't always the middle option. Sometimes, you can propose an outrageous, overly expensive option as the third option to make the middle option seem reasonable.

In personal relationships, we sometimes do this without thinking. You want to suggest a vacation. If you propose a luxury cruise (expensive), camping in the backyard (cheap), and then a mid-tier beach trip (the one you actually want), the backyard is just the decoy to make the beach look appealing. It's framing, not chance. (3)

And of course, the Ferengi would love the decoy effect. Picture Quark selling holosuite time. Option A: one bar of latinum for a standard program. Option B: one bar and three strips for the "deluxe" program that isn't much better than standard. Option C: two full bars for the ultra-deluxe package, packed with extras. Almost nobody bites on Option B - it only exists to make Option C look like the smart move. Quark doesn't need you to think too hard; he just needs you to feel like you're getting the best deal. That's Ferengi business, and that's the decoy effect at work.

So next time you're making a choice, ask: would this option still seem smart if the other ones weren't there? If not, you may have just spotted the invisible hand of the decoy effect.

LLAP
RR

(1) It's often hard to get companies to see the benefit of properly upgrading hardware and software. All they see is the number on the invoice. What they don't realize is that productivity savings add up fast. I've said it before with training - if you save someone just 10 minutes a day, that's a whole work week over the course of a year. The same math applies to equipment. If each employee saves 10 - 20 minutes a day by not fighting with outdated machines and sluggish software, the investment in upgrades often pays for itself in no time.

(2) To be clear, Congress doesn't literally print three versions of a bill for show. What happens is politicians use extremes and half-measures to frame the "reasonable" option. That's why I've always said bills should be one issue at a time. No pork, no riders, no "tacking billions in defense spending to a bill on veterans' benefits" kind of nonsense. Just clean legislation so we can see what's being voted on.

(3) Don't tell my wife that I do this. :)
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
          
7 months ago

Sam Domino  @Reply  
      
7 months ago
100% agree about Politicians!  At the Federal level, they'll delay spending bills until it gets to the point where "We have to pass this massive spending bill because if we don't, the Gov't will shut down!" In 2024, [one party] "swore" they would send individual bills to the POTUS for signature.  Now where weeks away from the end of the fiscal year and they are saying "We need a CR to keep the Gov't from shutting down."  All the while looking us straight in the eyes saying they did all they could to get the 12 spending bill done, but we couldn't because....."  Aaarrrrrrrgggggggg!
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
          
7 months ago
Yes, I agree, Sam. I edited your comment slightly because I try to keep things nonpartisan on this site. No blaming Democrats or Republicans. I want to avoid that so the focus stays on the issues, not dividing people. But I completely get what you're saying, and you're right. Both sides are guilty of promising one thing and then doing something entirely different.
Gary James  @Reply  
      
7 months ago
Interesting ...  I was recently part of a conversation in a Facebook group very similar to the comment here about Congresses Federal budgeting process.   According to Microsoft Copilot:

"Congress has a long history of relying on continuing resolutions (CRs) instead of passing full, updated budgets on time. In fact, according to Pew Research, Congress has only passed all 12 required appropriations bills on schedule four times since the current process began in 1976: in fiscal years 1977, 1989, 1995, and 1997. That means it’s been nearly three decades—since 1997—since Congress last completed the full budget process on time.

Since then, the norm has been:

Late or missing budget resolutions
Stopgap CRs to avoid government shutdowns
Omnibus bills passed at the last minute

Even in recent years, Congress has often failed to pass even the defense appropriations bill on time, resorting to CRs for the entire fiscal year. So if you're wondering when Congress last passed a full, updated budget instead of relying on a CR—it was 28 years ago."
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
          
7 months ago
If I ran my business the way these clowns run Congress, I'd have been out of business years ago.
Lisa Snider  @Reply  
       
7 months ago
Richard Well I suppose since we're their employers, we need to get on the ball and put them on the unemployment line before the US is 'out of business'.  LOL
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
          
7 months ago
From what I've read, the problem is that most people hate Congress, but they like their own congressman. So the same clowns keep getting reelected every year. That's why we need term limits.

This thread is now CLOSED. If you wish to comment, start a NEW discussion in Captain's Log.
 

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