The Osborne Effect is one of the most legendary tech blunders in history, and it's worth retelling because the lesson still applies today.

Back in the early 1980s, the Osborne Computer Corporation released one of the first truly portable computers: the Osborne 1. It had a tiny screen, twin floppy drives, a full keyboard, and it came bundled with a nice software package. It was a hit. They were selling like hotcakes to business professionals who wanted to take their work on the go. For a brief moment, Osborne was riding high.

Then the founder, Adam Osborne, made a critical error. While the Osborne 1 was still selling well, he got a little too excited and publicly announced the next model in development, the Osborne Executive. It was going to be better, faster, and more capable. But it wasn't ready yet.

And that was the problem.

The moment customers heard a better model was on the way, they stopped buying the current one. Dealers canceled their orders. Inventory started piling up. Sales cratered almost overnight. Osborne had unintentionally destroyed demand for its own successful product. With cash flow suddenly gone, the company couldn't stay afloat. They went bankrupt not long after. And the tech world coined the phrase the Osborne Effect.

This is exactly why modern software companies have learned to handle transitions more carefully. Ever notice how if you buy a computer right before a major Windows release, you're often offered a free upgrade? That's Microsoft avoiding the Osborne Effect. They want you to buy the current version without fear that something better will come out tomorrow and make your purchase obsolete.

I do the same thing with my courses. If I'm working on a new version of an older course, and you buy the current one within about a year before the update is released, I'll upgrade you to the new version for free. It's only fair. The goal is to keep people learning, not sitting around waiting.

The same logic applies in Access development, or any kind of software development really. If you're building an app and teasing new features, be careful not to talk too far ahead of what is ready. If your users think the good stuff is always just around the corner, they might stop using what's in front of them right now.

And remember, if you ever find yourself about to pre-announce the next big thing before your current product is stable and profitable, stop and think about that poor little portable with its 5-inch screen and a dream. The Osborne 1 deserved better.

Make it so  
LLAP/RR

P.S. I posted a link to an article about the Osborne Effect a few months back. Interesting read.