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False Cause
Richard Rost 
           
13 days ago
Today we tackle the False Cause fallacy, also known as post hoc ergo propter hoc for those who enjoy sounding pretentious at parties.

This one's a classic: assuming that just because two things happen together, one must be causing the other. It's like saying my dog barked and then the lights went out, so clearly my dog controls the power grid*.

In tech, it's the Access developer whose database crashes constantly after installing an Office update and assumes the update broke their database - when the real problem is their VBA code is limping along like a warp core held together with duct tape and crossed fingers.

In business, this fallacy shows up every time the marketing department runs a new ad campaign and sales go up a week later - so they assume the campaign was wildly effective. What they missed was that the spike in sales came from a price drop the sales team negotiated at the exact same time. But sure, let's keep spending money on that billboard with the guy in the chicken suit.

In fitness, it's that guy who starts taking supplements, does four workouts, and thinks his creatine gummies are turning him into Arnold. No, Brad. It's the workouts. The gummies just gave you heartburn.

Another textbook example: ice cream sales and murder rates. They both go up in the summer, but that doesn't mean one causes the other. The real cause is a third factor - temperature. Hot weather drives both behaviors, not Rocky Road rage.

And then there are the spurious correlation charts you see online, like the one showing Nicolas Cage movie releases matching up with swimming pool drownings. Or cheese consumption tracking with death by tangled bedsheets. The numbers line up, but the logic breaks down faster than a Redshirt on an away mission.

Here's another one: As pirate numbers decreased, global temperatures increased. Therefore, pirates prevent global warming. Case closed. Call the EPA.

Even Captain Picard isn't immune. In The Battle, he starts getting debilitating headaches and visions just as the Ferengi return his old ship, the Stargazer. The crew assumes it's trauma, nostalgia, maybe a psychosomatic response. Turns out he's being zapped by a mind-control beacon hidden aboard. They drew all the wrong conclusions because the timing lined up. Correlation, not causation - and the Ferengi almost got away with murder because of it.

The lesson: correlation does not equal causation. Just because two things happen together doesn't mean one caused the other. Always check for a third factor - or the possibility that the whole thing is a coincidence wrapped in wishful thinking.

LLAP  
RR  

* To be fair, Carter does think he's a god. Cooper also thinks Carter is a god. Follows him around everywhere. Little brother syndrome. :)
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
           
13 days ago

Matt Hall  @Reply  
           
13 days ago
This is super common in maintenance.  I don't know how many healthy devices I have changed out because a manager or engineer committed this while troubleshooting.  It does make for good some stories, though.

One place I worked, we had a sensor, with no moving parts, that should last 20+ years.  Management determined it should "wear out" every 3 months.  It turns out the gasket material, and subsequently the cable insulation, was being dissolved by the process fluid.  After I changed the gasket to something appropriate, I had to fight them to leave it installed once they got to the three month mark, because it was "worn out".  I worked there for 6 years and the same sensor was still installed and working.  This had been costing them about $640K annually in loss of production.
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
           
13 days ago
Wow! That's insane. Oh, I've got more. I didn't share all of them in the article, but I could keep going with the crazy stuff I've seen.

I had a client once who was convinced their printer was breaking the internet. Every time they powered on their trusty HP LaserJet, the Wi-Fi would die. Naturally, they concluded the printer was somehow sending destructive radio waves through the air or hijacking the router's soul. The actual cause? They had both the printer and the modem plugged into the same ten-year-old surge protector - the kind with yellowed plastic and wiring that belonged in a museum. The thing couldn't handle the load. Every time the printer warmed up, the strip tripped just enough to kill power to the modem. The printer didn't kill the internet. The $4 power strip did. But logic didn't stand a chance against the timing, and they were ready to roll the printer into the street like it owed them money.

You'd be surprised the superstitious people I've come across in my consulting career. One client genuinely believed the planets' positions were wreaking havoc on their business. And I quote: "This always happens when Mercury is in retrograde." Huh? Their website was crashing, Outlook wouldn't connect, and obviously, the cosmos was to blame. They were dead serious. The real cause? Their network cables were strung haphazardly across a ceiling full of old fluorescent light ballasts. Every time the lights flickered or someone turned on a bank of fixtures, the electrical interference caused just enough chaos to drop connections and trigger restarts. But no - clearly, it was planetary vengeance. That's False Cause in full irrational bloom: blaming the stars instead of the wiring.
Thomas Gonder  @Reply  
       
12 days ago
Richard As to the HP LaserJet story, if there was an older printer plugged into that "surge protector", I'll bet they countered with something like, "Well, that was never a problem with the old printer!" Despite buying a new one that presumably did more and faster. And if you sold them the printer, well then it was YOUR FAULT, and they shouldn't have to pay for your time to troubleshoot the issue?

I can't tell you how many times I installed a new piece of software or equipment, and the client liked to believe that I magically inherited all the existing deficiencies in their old environment and was obligated to fix it.
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
           
12 days ago
I think that might have been the case but it's been so long
Richard Rost OP  @Reply  
           
9 days ago
A good video on the subject.
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