Today we tackle the False Cause fallacy, also known as post hoc ergo propter hoc for those who enjoy sounding pretentious at parties.

This one's a classic: assuming that just because two things happen together, one must be causing the other. It's like saying my dog barked and then the lights went out, so clearly my dog controls the power grid*.

In tech, it's the Access developer whose database crashes constantly after installing an Office update and assumes the update broke their database - when the real problem is their VBA code is limping along like a warp core held together with duct tape and crossed fingers.

In business, this fallacy shows up every time the marketing department runs a new ad campaign and sales go up a week later - so they assume the campaign was wildly effective. What they missed was that the spike in sales came from a price drop the sales team negotiated at the exact same time. But sure, let's keep spending money on that billboard with the guy in the chicken suit.

In fitness, it's that guy who starts taking supplements, does four workouts, and thinks his creatine gummies are turning him into Arnold. No, Brad. It's the workouts. The gummies just gave you heartburn.

Another textbook example: ice cream sales and murder rates. They both go up in the summer, but that doesn't mean one causes the other. The real cause is a third factor - temperature. Hot weather drives both behaviors, not Rocky Road rage.

And then there are the spurious correlation charts you see online, like the one showing Nicolas Cage movie releases matching up with swimming pool drownings. Or cheese consumption tracking with death by tangled bedsheets. The numbers line up, but the logic breaks down faster than a Redshirt on an away mission.

Here's another one: As pirate numbers decreased, global temperatures increased. Therefore, pirates prevent global warming. Case closed. Call the EPA.

Even Captain Picard isn't immune. In The Battle, he starts getting debilitating headaches and visions just as the Ferengi return his old ship, the Stargazer. The crew assumes it's trauma, nostalgia, maybe a psychosomatic response. Turns out he's being zapped by a mind-control beacon hidden aboard. They drew all the wrong conclusions because the timing lined up. Correlation, not causation - and the Ferengi almost got away with murder because of it.

The lesson: correlation does not equal causation. Just because two things happen together doesn't mean one caused the other. Always check for a third factor - or the possibility that the whole thing is a coincidence wrapped in wishful thinking.

LLAP  
RR  

* To be fair, Carter does think he's a god. Cooper also thinks Carter is a god. Follows him around everywhere. Little brother syndrome. :)